According to the latest Fox News poll, former President Trump has a narrow lead over President Biden in the race for the White House. But the battle is heating up as Biden's approval ratings rise due to growing economic optimism.
Here are answers to frequently asked questions about the 2024 election.
Who is leading the presidential election?
The word “lead” is used when a candidate's advantage is outside the margin of error. In a binary matchup, Trump currently has a one-point lead over Biden. But for at least the past six months, Mr. Trump has held a narrow lead over Mr. Biden nationally. Including third-party candidates, he beats Biden by 3 percentage points (43% to 40%), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 11% and Cornel West and Jill Stein. Each received 2%. In March, Biden was trailing by 5 points in each race.
Here are all the restrictions the Biden campaign called for in its Trump debate proposal
Will RFK Jr. hurt Biden or Trump more?
Kennedy's support also comes from those who would support Biden (10%) and Trump (9%) in a two-way race. What hurts Biden is that third-party candidates West and Stein are siphoning more points from Biden (6%) than from President Trump (1%).
A majority of Trump supporters (56%) have a favorable view of Kennedy, while a majority of Biden supporters (62%) view him unfavorably. Less than one-third of Kennedy supporters have a favorable opinion of Biden (31%) and Trump (28%).
Is it true that support for Biden among minorities is declining?
According to the poll, Biden enjoys 72% support among black voters. That's up from 66% in February, but still below the 79% level before the 2020 election.
Democrats hope these voters will “come back” when it's time to vote, but no one knows to what extent that will happen.
Trump accepts Biden's offer to hold debates in June and September
But there is precedent for a backlash of the scale the Biden campaign is targeting. As of April 2020, Biden's approval rating was 66% among blacks and 52% among Hispanics. In the end, he won both groups by much higher percentages of 91% and 63%, respectively, according to a November 2020 FOX News voter analysis.
According to the survey, President Biden enjoys 72% support among black voters. He is up from 66% in February, but still below the 79% he was at before the 2020 election. (Tierney L. Cross)
Still, Democratic pollster Chris Anderson is cautiously optimistic. “Biden can't count on these voters to return home,” said Anderson, who runs polls for Fox News with Republican Daron Shaw. “It's not just a matter of motivating them to vote; it's about convincing a lot of people to change their minds. Fortunately for Biden, Trump provides most of the motivation the base needs. I think he should be able to focus more on persuasion from now on.” ”
Support for the president is also softening among other groups that make up the Democratic base. While he remains popular among suburban women (54%) and moderates (53%), his support is much lower than expected. Before the 2020 election, both were 61%. Furthermore, it only gained 63% to 49% among voters under 30.
What groups support President Trump?
Trump supports rural voters (+25), whites without a college degree (+25), and white evangelical Christians (+44).
“New” voters' preferences are split between a binary choice (Biden 48% vs. Trump 50%) or a hypothetical expanded vote (Biden 39%, Trump 41%, RFK Jr. 13%). New voters are defined as people who have not voted in the last four general elections.
In 2020, 80% of Biden voters stuck with him, compared to 87% for Trump, with fewer defecting due to expansion voting. Independents support Trump by a narrow margin (+2). Almost all Republicans support Mr. Trump, and an equal number of Democrats support Mr. Biden.
“This country is becoming increasingly polarized, and the numbers show it,” Shaw said. “But Trump has a slight advantage among people who are not part of the core party or have never been involved in politics. That's part of what's giving him the advantage right now.”
Who do double haters support?
Only 6% of voters had a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump in 2020, favoring Biden by 17 points, according to a Fox News Voter Analysis poll. Currently, 13% fall into the dual hater category, supporting Biden by 11 points (48% to 37%). This is despite 87% disapproving of his job and 78% saying the economy is worsening. In March, it supported Biden by 2 points, and in February, it supported Trump by 3 points. Astute research readers know that it is normal for results to differ among small subgroups.
Nancy Pelosi says she would “never recommend” Trump on stage during Biden debate after sudden announcement
Biden (85% favorable among Democrats) and Trump (86% favorable among Republicans) are equally liked among members of their respective parties. Overall, 46% of people view Trump favorably as a person, while 53% view him unfavorably, for a net score of -7 points. Biden is -12 (44% to 56%) and Kennedy is 4 points lower (44% to 48%), the first time they have entered negative territory.
Scores for the other candidates tested were: West (-11), Kamala Harris (-15), Stein (-21). About half of voters don't know about Mr. West or Mr. Stein.
Where is the possibility of moving?
In the Biden-Trump contest, only 4% of voters said they were undecided and planned to support another candidate or not vote. This appears to leave little room for movement, but he peels off 15% when presented with other candidate options. Kennedy has his 11%, West and Stein each have 2%.
With more voters trusting Trump on key issues, why is the race so close?
President Trump's confidence has increased by double digits on immigration and the economy, widely considered the two key issues in the campaign. Trump is expected to be able to deal with foreign policy and crime by an order of magnitude. Biden has the advantage on election integrity, health care and abortion, but energy policy is a point of contention between the two.
One reason the head-to-head race remains so close is that just because voters believe Trump is better on immigration and the economy doesn't mean they'll automatically support him. In fact, 10% to 13% of voters support Biden.
Additionally, while a majority of those who only somewhat approve of Biden's performance still support his reelection (41%), virtually all those who strongly disapprove support Trump (93%). ).
Just over half of Biden supporters (51%) say they primarily support Biden, while about the same number say their support is better described as support for Trump (48%). (James Devaney/GC Images | Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Is the mood in the country improving?
perhaps.
Views on the economy remain more than 2-1 negative (70% negative, 30% positive), but still at the most positive level in nearly three years.
Thirty percent rate the economic situation as good or excellent, up from a low of 17% during Biden's presidency (July 2022). The last time sentiment was this optimistic was in Biden's first year in office, with 30% positive and 69% negative as of September 2021.
Additionally, 30% say they feel the economy is getting better for their families, an improvement of 7 points compared to last year. Still, 64% say they feel the situation is getting worse.
Inflation remains a problem. For at least 8 out of 10 of her children, paying for food, gas, utilities and medical bills is a family issue. Among them, many say food prices (62%), gas prices (49%), utilities (44%), and medical costs (44%) are “big” issues. Three-quarters say housing costs are an issue (47% critical). Only 43% of respondents say student loans are a problem (24% say it's serious).
Among low-income households (those making less than $50,000 a year), 71% say food prices are a “big” problem, up from 67% last year and 60% in 2022.
The president's employment ratings rose to the highest level in a year as optimism about the economy increased, with 45% of voters approving and 55% disapproving. In March, it was 41-58%. Since then, his approval rating has increased by 5 points among Democrats and 7 points among independents.
Biden's ratings are more negative on certain issues, including the Israel-Hamas war (32% approve, 64% disapprove), border security (33% to 64%) and inflation (34% to 64%). Despite the 19-point difference (40% to 59%), his best score is on the economy.
Is this election a referendum on incumbent or challenger?
The contest is primarily about Trump. Most of his supporters say they are voting for him (71%) rather than against Biden (29%). And while just over half (51%) of Biden supporters say they primarily support Biden, about the same number say their support is better described as support for Trump. Yes (48%).
What happens to potential voters?
It's too early to talk about likely voters. Most people start thinking about elections as Election Day approaches. Check back after Labor Day. Meanwhile, the survey of registered voters found that 68% said they were “very” willing to vote. This is an increase of 6 points compared to four years ago. These highly motivated voters favor Trump (51%) over Biden (48%) by 3 percentage points.
Polpuri
Overall, 41% believe Biden has the mental health to serve effectively as president, up from 37% in March. Half (50%) say the same about Trump, up from 49% two months ago. 64% say it is important for Biden and Trump to debate, and another 43% think Kennedy should be included in at least one of them. More independents (49%) and Republicans (49%) than Democrats (35%) say Kennedy's participation is important.The survey comes in the third week of Trump's hush money trial in New York. It was carried out in About 46% think Trump did something illegal, 25% say it was unethical but not illegal, and 27% say Trump did nothing wrong. Voters generally think Trump is treated fairly by the legal system, by a four-point margin: 51% fair and 47% unfair. This is down from an 11-point difference in October 2023 (55% vs. 44%). Democrats (89%) and independents (52%) think he's been treated fairly, while Republicans (85%) think he's been treated unfairly.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Most Biden supporters say they want Biden to continue with Vice President Harris (72%), but those who support Trump say they should choose a MAGA running mate (47%). Or have mixed opinions about whether to choose a MAGA “less” Republican to maintain balance (50%).
Click here for toplines and crosstabs
The Fox News poll, conducted May 10-13 and jointly directed by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), included a random sample of voter files from across the country. Includes interviews with a sample of 1,126 registered voters. Respondents either spoke live with an interviewer via landline (133) and mobile phone (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (293). Results based on the complete sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Typically, weights are applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
FOX News' Victoria Bharara contributed to this report.