Nearly two weeks after President Biden announced a sweeping executive order aimed at reducing migration to the southern border, a new Fox News national poll finds that a majority of voters support limiting the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S., and the fact that Biden's name is not attached to the plan has further strengthened support for the idea.
Additionally, Biden's approval rating on immigration has increased by five points since March and is now at its highest in a year, while former President Trump's advantage on handling immigration issues has declined, making it a close race between the two veteran candidates.
(Biden's) Restrictions on Asylum Seekers
The poll, released Thursday, used a split-sample test to examine support for a policy that would limit the number of immigrants allowed into the country through asylum claims. Half of voters were asked what they thought of President Biden's executive order implementing the policy, and nearly six in ten (57%) supported the measure, while four in ten (38%) disapproved.
The other half were asked about the proposal without mentioning Biden by name or any executive order. In this scenario, approval jumped to 66%, while disapproval was just 3 in 10 (29%). That means voters approve of Biden's plan by nearly 20 points, but approval rises to 37 points when Biden is not involved in the plan.
Depending on how the question is asked, there are differences across party, gender, age and race. Men, white voters, voters over 45 and Republicans are all more likely to support limiting the number of asylum seekers when Biden's name is not mentioned, while suburban women, non-white voters and Democrats are all more likely to support the plan when Biden's name is mentioned. Voters under 45 feel about the same whether the president's name is mentioned or not.
The popularity of Biden's executive orders likely boosted his approval rating for immigration policy, which rose to 35% from 30% in March. Still, 63% disapprove of his handling of immigration policy, a net drop of 28 percentage points.
Regarding Biden's overall job performance, 45% approve and 55% disapprove.
FOX News Poll: Majority favors Israelis over Palestinians
The survey uses a similar split sample to test the effect of Trump's name on a proposal to exempt tips from workers' federal income taxes. Trump said in a June 10 campaign speech in Las Vegas that he would implement the proposal if elected. When Trump is associated with the plan, voters support it by 30 points (62% in favor, 32% against), but when Trump's name is removed, support rises to 39 points (68% in favor, 29% against).
The partisan split is stark here, with Democrats disapproving of the proposition by 10 points when Trump's name comes up and supporting it by 40 points when he doesn't, and Republicans supporting it by 71 points when Trump's name comes up and 46 points when he doesn't.
“The impact of partisan polarization on policy support is clear,” said Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who runs the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Most voters support limiting asylum seekers at the southern border and like the income tax exemption for TIPS, but most partisans can't say they don't agree with something if the candidate on the other side is behind it. Maybe Congress needs to make bill proposals anonymous, and then something will get done.”
Immigration and the 2024 Election
The presidential election remains close, but if the two were to face off again, Biden would beat Trump for the first time since October (50% to 48%). Biden also has a one-point lead in the expanded vote (43% for Biden, 42% for Trump, 10% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% each for Cornell West and Jill Stein).
Voters say issues (59%) are more important than people (29%) in this election, and the fact that more than half say immigration (52%) was extremely important to their vote means something.
But while immigration ranks high on voters' priority lists, it's not at the top. The most important issues are the future of American democracy (68%) and the economy (66%), followed by stability and normalization (58%), immigration and healthcare (52% each). Next are abortion (47% consider it extremely important) and guns (45%), while the lowest, below 40%, are resisting elite interests (37%), climate change (33%) and a war between Israel and Hamas (32%).
Three-quarters of Republicans consider immigration extremely important, outranked only by the economy. For Democrats and independents, immigration isn't even in the top five issues.
Trump is favored on two of the top five issues, including immigration, where he is seen as nine points better off, though that's still down from +15 points in May. He's also more trusted on the economy, which has also fallen since May (+5 from +13). On the Israel-Hamas war, Trump is four points better off.
Biden has an edge on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6), and also holds significant leads on less obvious issues like climate change (+20) and abortion (+13). Neither party has a clear edge on stability/normalcy (Biden +3), elite interests (Biden +2), or guns (Trump +2).
“The fact that a majority approved President Biden's executive order restricting asylum seekers is significant,” Anderson said. “If Biden can curtail Trump's advantages on immigration and the economy, Trump will lose the leverage of two key divisive policies that resonate across his base.”
Despite the shift toward Biden, immigration remains important to Trump's prospects: While immigration ranks in the middle of the rankings on importance, those who say it is extremely important voted for Trump by a 37-point margin.
But here, too, there is worrying news for the former president: One in 10 voters who think Trump would do a better job of handling immigration also favors Biden as their voting priority. Trump may be helped by the enthusiasm of Republicans in general, and “pro-immigration” voters in particular.
FOX News Poll: Biden vs. Trump matchup changes by 3 points since May
Overall, two-thirds of voters are very motivated to vote this year, but more Republicans (74%) than Democrats (64%) feel that way. Among those who are very motivated, six in ten believe immigration is very important to their vote and that Trump is better able to handle it.
Split-sample question wording and methodology statement
Click here to get the FOX News app
Here is the wording of the split-sample question asked in the June Fox News national survey: Half of the respondents were asked about Sample A, and the other half were asked about Sample B.
[SPLIT A] Do you support or oppose President Biden's executive order on immigration that limits the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S. at the southern border?
Agree Disagree (Don't know) June 14-17, 2012 57% 384
[SPLIT B] Do you support or oppose limiting the number of asylum seekers entering the United States at the southern border?
Agree Disagree (Don't know) June 14-17, 2012 66% 295
[SPLIT A] Do you support or oppose former President Trump's proposal to eliminate federal taxes on tips paid to workers?
Agree Disagree (Don't know) June 14-17, 2012 62% 326
[SPLIT B] Do you support or oppose eliminating the federal tax on tips paid to workers?
Agree Disagree (Don't know) June 14-17, 2012 68% 293
Click here to see the top lines and crosstabs
The Fox News Poll, conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), included interviews with 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from the national voter file. Respondents spoke with a live interviewer on a landline (130) and cell phone (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Results based on split samples have a margin of sampling error of ± 4 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order may affect results. Weights are commonly applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weighting targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.