Former President Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020, and a new Fox News poll suggests he's likely to win the state again. Still, Florida is not widely considered a battleground state this election cycle, but the poll shows President Joe Biden within striking distance.
Trump won Florida by about 3.5 percentage points in 2020. He currently holds roughly the same edge, 50% to 46%, within the poll's margin of sampling error.
Trump's advantages come from white evangelical Christians (76%), rural voters (66%), white voters (55%), voters without a college degree (54%), men (52%), those under 30 (51%), and voters over 65 (50%).
Groups where Biden is most supportive include Black voters (69%), moderates (55%), independents (52%), college graduates (51%), urban voters (51%) and suburban voters (49%).
Notably, Biden's lead among Hispanic voters is only 2 points, while his lead among black voters is narrowing to 40 points. According to a Fox News 2020 voter analysis in Florida, Biden won Hispanic voters by 9 points and black voters by 80 points.
Women's support was split 49% each. In 2020, Biden won women's support by a 3 percentage point margin.
Reports this week showed that registered Republican voters in Florida outnumber Democrats by about 900,000, and a survey released Thursday found that voters are toeing party lines, with 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans supporting their respective candidates.
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In a hypothetical five-way race, Trump's lead would widen to seven points, with Trump at 47%, Biden at 40%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7%, Cornel West at 2% and Jill Stein at 1%.
Kennedy supporters in the expanded vote favor Biden over Trump by 5 points in a two-way race.
Of the third-party candidates surveyed, only Jill Stein is officially on the ballot in Florida.
Trump guilty in hush money trial
Trump was convicted in a New York hush-money case on May 31. The investigation was conducted after the verdict was handed down (June 1-4).
But that likely won't make much difference to Floridians voting this year: Roughly two-thirds (64%) say convicting Trump doesn't matter, and half of those (50%) say it doesn't matter at all.
Voters who say the ruling doesn't matter at all support Trump by 30 points. A third say the ruling is very or somewhat important to their vote, favoring Biden by 32 points.
By a seven-point margin, voters believe Trump received a fair trial (52% fair, 45% not fair). Nearly all Democrats (92%), two-thirds of independents (65%), and even one in six Republicans (15%) say it was fair.
“Most partisans have already made up their minds, so we should look to nonpartisans to see what impact the verdict will have,” said Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducted the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Roughly 14% of voters are fully independent, and of those, about a quarter say a conviction of Trump would affect their vote 'a lot,' meaning the verdict could boost Biden by 1 percentage point.”
Would convicting Trump sway third-party voters toward Biden? Most of these voters believe the trial was fair and are split on whether it will affect their vote. In head-to-head races, they favor Biden by 21 points.
Issues and Florida Ballot Initiatives
More than half of voters feel the economy is either making progress (13%) or staying the same (41%), but the largest majority, 45%, say it is lagging behind.
Those who said he is ahead or stable favor Biden by 36 points, while those who said he is behind favor Trump by 53 points.
Meanwhile, in terms of who could better deal with the issues, Trump is seen as having a clear lead on several top priorities, with voters up 21 points on immigration and border security, 17 points on the economy and 12 points on the Israel-Hamas war.
On climate change (+7) and abortion (+5), more voters trust Biden, though by smaller margins.
Voters were split on who would better handle election integrity and health care (Biden +2 on each).
The survey looked at two proposed constitutional amendments on Florida's November ballot, with roughly two-thirds of voters saying they would vote “yes” on each.
The first is Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adults over the age of 21, with 66% supporting the measure and 32% opposed.
Amendment 4, which would establish a right to abortion up to the time the fetus is viable or at any time to protect the patient's health, is supported by 69% and opposed by 27%.
Majorities of Democrats (76%), Independents (71%), and Republicans (57%) support legalizing marijuana. On establishing abortion rights, 9 in 10 Democrats support the amendment and 7 in 10 Independents feel the same way, but Republicans are more divided (50% in favor, 45% against).
Those who support the amendment support Biden (marijuana +9, abortion +23), while those who oppose it overwhelmingly support Trump (marijuana +35, abortion +69).
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The DeSantis factor
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' approval rating is in positive territory by 5 points (52% approve, 47% disapprove), but that's down from a 13-point margin four years ago and a 26-point margin in April 2020.
Still, his approval rating is 14 points lower than Biden's (43% vs. 57%), but better than Biden's.
“DeSantis is less popular than he was four years ago and there are two popular vote issues that could swing turnout in Democrats' favor,” Anderson said. “Could Biden make an offensive in Florida? Yes, he could, and it would be significant because it would completely change the electoral map.”
Additionally, 83% of those who support DeSantis say they will support Trump in the fall election, while 92% of those who support Biden say they will support him for reelection.
When it comes to views of the candidates, Floridians have a more favorable view of Trump than Biden or Kennedy. Trump is neck and neck among voters (49% favorable, 49% unfavorable), while Biden (42% to 56%) and Kennedy (34% to 46%) are in unfavorable territory.
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“Biden faces a numbers game in Florida because Republicans currently far outnumber Democrats,” Shaw said. “Given that they need to win other states, can Democrats afford to spend money and time trying to get more votes in an expensive state like Florida?”
Click here to see the top lines and crosstabs
The Fox News Poll, conducted June 1-4 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), included interviews with 1,075 registered voters randomly selected from Florida's statewide voter file. Respondents were given the option to speak with a live interviewer on landlines (176) and cell phones (670), complete the survey online after receiving a text (229), or complete the interview in English or Spanish. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are typically applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population.