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A new national poll from Fox News has found that positive views of the economy have inched up to the highest level so far during Biden's term, making him the favorite to face off against former President Trump for the first time since October.
Since May, the presidential race has changed by three points: last month Trump had a one-point lead, but today Biden has a two-point lead, 50% to 48%, within the margin of error.
In addition to improved economic ratings, various events since the May survey, including Trump's hush money conviction, Hunter Biden's gun conviction, strong U.S. employment statistics, and Biden's immigration executive actions, could influence small changes in voting preferences.
Biden's current approval rating of 50% is his highest so far this election cycle. It's the first time Biden has outperformed Trump since October 2023, when the margin of approval was just one point (49% to 48%).
There was also a four-point change in the expanded vote. When other candidates were included, Biden edged out Trump by one point (43% to 42%), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won by 10%, and Cornel West and Jill Stein each won by 2%. Last month, Trump led Biden by three points (43% to 40%).
Trump is favored by men (+15), rural voters (+17), white men without a degree (+30), and white evangelical Christians (+46). Biden also has strong support among voters over 65 (+15), women (+17), urban voters (+23), and white women with a college degree (+28).
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Biden has the support of 73% of Black voters, according to a November 2020 Fox News voter analysis, slightly lower than the 79% he had before the 2020 election, when he won the support of 91% of Black voters.
The new poll finds nearly all party affiliations remain strong, with 95% of Democrats backing Biden and 95% of Republicans backing Trump.
Importantly, independents favor Biden by 9 points, a change from May when they favored Trump by 2 points. Among independents, equal numbers say leadership (59%) and integrity (58%) are extremely important to their voting decision, but they are 23 points more likely to say Biden has integrity and only 11 points more likely to say Trump is a strong leader. We'll explain these characteristics in more detail below.
“The underlying demographic trends that have defined the race remain intact,” said Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who conducts the poll for Fox News with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Biden has seen modest gains in support among women and older voters, and he has maintained his support among younger voters and African-Americans, even as he has seen larger declines from 2020.”
Trump retains slightly more 2020 voters than Biden in both head-to-head (1 point) and expanded vote (+3), and new voters support him in both two-way (4 points) and five-way (+6) contests. New voters are defined as voters who have not participated in the last four general elections.
Three-quarters of voters say it's “very important” who wins the presidential election, favoring Biden over Trump by five points. More women than men (7 points) and more voters over 65 than younger voters (+24) feel the election outcome is very important, a trend that could be a big help to Biden if it holds up.
It's too early to see results among likely voters, but Trump leads Biden by 3 percentage points among two-thirds of voters who say they are “very” motivated to vote this year.
Among double haters (those who are unfavorable to both Biden and Trump), Biden has an 11-point lead in the two-way contest, while Kennedy (35%) and Biden (27%) are more favored than Trump (21%) in the five-way contest.
On a personal level, majorities have unfavorable views of President Trump (57% unfavorable), Vice President Harris (57%), Mr Biden (56%) and Mr Kennedy (51%). 46% have an unfavorable opinion of First Lady Jill Biden and 72% have an unfavorable opinion of his son, Hunter Biden.
Among Democrats, 84% have a favorable view of President Biden and 82% have a favorable view of the First Lady, 77% have a favorable view of Ms Harris and 35% have a favorable view of Mr Hunter, while 86% of Republicans have a favorable view of President Trump.
Are people feeling positive about the economy?
Although the survey showed an increase in economic evaluations, overall sentiment remains negative.
One-third of voters, 32%, say the economy is doing extremely well or well, the highest figure of Biden's presidency. The previous high was 30% last month (and in September 2021).
Fifty-nine percent say their finances are moving forward or stable, up five points from last summer, and 44% are optimistic about the economy, up nine points compared to 2023.
Economic conditions may be improving, but they are far from booming: A majority (56%) are pessimistic about the economy, four in 10 say they are lagging behind financially, and two-thirds rate their economic situation as “fair” or “poor” (68%).
More optimism about the economy has boosted Biden's approval rating, albeit modestly. A record 37% support fighting inflation, and 41% approve of the economy, the highest approval rating in more than two years. On immigration (35%, up from 30% last month) and the Israel-Hamas war (32% approve), about a third give Biden a favorable rating.
Overall, 45% of voters approve of the job Biden is doing, while 55% disapprove — unchanged from last month but the highest record since January 2023.
Thirty-four percent are satisfied with the current state of the country, up two points from a year ago and the highest level in more than three years, but still 11 points lower than when Biden took office in 2021.
Is this election about candidates or about issues?
By a 59%-29% margin, voters say this election is more about who can handle the issues well than the candidates' character. Republicans are about 20 points more likely than Democrats and Independents to say the issues matter. Nearly 4-in-10 Democrats and Independents think the issues are a matter of character, compared with just 2-in-10 Republicans.
A majority of respondents say leadership (66%) and integrity (61%) are extremely important in their voting choice, while less than half feel the same about age and mental health (45%).
More voters believe Trump is mentally sound (7 points) and a strong leader (+10), while Biden leads in honesty (10 points) and empathy (+6).
The top issues for voters are the future of American democracy and the economy, followed by stability and normalcy, then immigration and health care. Nearly half say abortion and guns are extremely important to their vote, and nearly a third feel the same about resisting elite interests, climate change and the Israel-Hamas war.
Voters trust Trump more on two of the top five issues: immigration (9 points) and the economy (+5). But these are narrower than the advantages he enjoyed in May (immigration +15, economy +13). He is also favored for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war (+4). While more people trust Biden to do a better job on health care (+10) and the future of American democracy (+6), his biggest advantages are on the slightly lower priority issues of abortion (+13) and climate change (+20). Neither candidate has a clear advantage on stability and normalization (Biden +3), countering elite interests (Biden +2), or guns (Trump +2).
“While this poll hasn't changed much since May, it's enough to be a welcome poll for Biden,” Anderson said. “Improved voter approval is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, Biden has built advantages on abortion and health care, while Trump's advantages on the economy and immigration have significantly declined. If voters don't perceive Trump as significantly better on the economy and immigration, the case for returning Trump to the presidency will be much murkier for some voters.”
What is happening with RFK Jr?
Kennedy's net personal favorability rating has fallen from 3 points in positive territory to 11 points in negative territory. A slim majority, 51%, views him unfavorably.
Meanwhile, his approval rating in the five-way presidential poll has fallen by one percentage point each month, from 15% in November 2023 to 10% now. The difference is within the margin of error, but it's a notable trend.
In a two-candidate race, Biden and Trump supporters are evenly split at 47% each.
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Nearly equal numbers of people who supported Biden (9%) and Trump (10%) in the two-way race went to Kennedy in the expanded vote. West and Stein swung more support from Biden (5%) than from Trump (2%).
Polpuri
Three in 10 voters say debate performance is extremely important in their presidential vote, and by a 5-point margin more voters think Trump will win next week's debate. Slightly more Democrats (9%) think Trump will win than Republicans (6%) say the same about Biden.
The poll asked voters what comes to mind when they hear about threats to the future of American democracy, and they were overwhelmingly more likely to see the end of certain “rights and freedoms” as a greater threat than the end of “free and fair elections” (53% to 30%). This was true among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
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Twenty-three percentage points more people say Hunter Biden's gun trial (79%) was fair than Trump's hush money trial (56%). Only 4% say Hunter's conviction caused them to change their support for Trump or a third-party candidate in the presidential election, while 5% say Trump's conviction caused them to change their support for Biden or another candidate.
Click here to see the top lines and crosstabs
The Fox News Poll, conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), included interviews with 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from the national voter file. Respondents spoke with a live interviewer on a landline (130) and cell phone (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order may affect results. Weights are commonly applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weighting targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News' Victoria Bharara contributed to this report.